Thursday, January 31, 2013

Davis Cup Predictions.

The first round of the Davis Cup begins tomorrow, here are my picks.

Canada vs. Spain
Team Canada:  Milos Raonic, Vasek Pospisil, Frank Dancevic, Daniel Nestor
Team Spain: Marcel Granollers, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Albert Ramos, Marc Lopez

Spain sends a depleted squad, especially when its highest ranked player on the team is Marcelo Granollers.  They feature doubles specialist Marc Lopez who is currently ranked #3 in doubles.  Canada combats with Milos Raonic and #4 rated doubles player Daniel Nestor.

On paper you have to lean towards Canada with Raonic and being at home, but no way can I pick Canada to beat the Spaniards who have owned Davis Cup ties with as much regularity as their National Football Team has soccer.

Pick:  Spain 3-2









Italy vs. Croatia
Team Italy:  Andreas Seppi, Fabio Fognini, Paolo Lorenzi, Simone Bolelli
Team Croatia:  Marin Cilic, Ivan Dodig, Nikola Metkic, Mate Pavcic

The Italians will be at home, and their only tough foe will be Cilic.  Dodig is a serviceable "jobber", but the other two guys are nobodies.  Seppi is having a good start to the season, and Fognini plays well on clay.  Fognini will also get under the skin of the Croats with his shenanigans.

Pick:  Italy in a minor upset 4-1









Belgium vs. Serbia
Team Belgium:  David Goffin, Steve Darcis, Ruben Bemelmans, Olivier Rochus
Team Serbia:  Novak Djokovic, Viktor Troicki, Nenad Zimonjic, Boris Pashanski

Belgium is at home....Who cares? This will be an ass beating.

Pick:  Serbia 5-0









United States  vs. Brazil
Team USA:  John Isner, Sam Querrey, Mike Bryan, Bob Bryan.
Team Brazil: Thomaz Bellucci, Thiago Alves, Marcelo Melo, Bruno Soares

This is a perfect matchup for the United States here.  Isner is probably still complaining of fatigue from the match vs. Mahut at Wimbledon, but even on one leg he should be able to beat his opponent.  This will be a walkthrough for the home Americans.

Pick:  United States 4-1









France vs. Israel
Team France: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Richard Gasquet, Julien Benneteau, Michael Llodra
Team Israel: Dudi Sela, Amir Weintraub, Jonathan Erlich, Noam Okun

France is way too powerful and talented.  On top of that, they are playing in France.  Maybe Israel pulls out a doubles win, or a match that will not matter on the 3rd day if they are lucky.

Pick:  France 5-0









Argentina  vs. Germany
Team Argentina:  Juan Monaco, Horacio Zeballos, Carlos Berlocq, David Nalbandian
Team Germany:  Philipp Kohlschreiber, Florian Mayer, Tobias Kamke, Christopher Kas

This should be a highly competitive matchup.  Juan Monaco is the highest ranked player between both teams, but has not had a good start to this season.  Kohlschreiber and Mayer are playing fairly well.  But the matches will be played on clay in Argentina.  That may be the difference in a tie that may come down to the last match.

Pick:  Argentina 3-2









Kazakhstan  vs. Austria
Team Kazakhstan:  Mikhail Kukushkin, Andrey Golubev, Evgeny Korolev, Yuriy Schukin
Team Austria:  Jurgen Melzer, Andreas Haider-Maurer, Alexander Peya, Julian Knowle

I really like Kazakhstan in this matchup.  Beyond Melzer, Austria doesn't really have that strong of a team.  Kazakhstan playing at home, with a rowdy crowd behind them...Hell, when was the last time a major sporting event was played in Kazakhstan?  The Borat-like people will be stirred into a frenzy and push their tennis playing brethren to victory.

Pick:  Kazakhstan 3-2









Switzerland  vs. Czech Republic
Team Switzerland:  Stanislas Wawrinka, Marco Chiudinelli, Michael Lammer, Henri Laaksonen
Team Czech Republic:  Tomas Berdych, Lukas Rosol, Ivo Minar, Jiri Vesely

The defending champion Czech team start their cup defense on the road in Switzerland.  Switzerland's most famous resident Roger Federer decided not to play this time around.  Leaving Stanislas Wawrinka and 3 bums to defend the home soil.  The Czech team features Tomas Berdych, who is one of the elite players in the world, but is without their bothersome gnat Radek Stepanek.  The Czech team is just better, and who knows how Wawrinka will respond in his first match since the crushing defeat to Novak Djokovic.  His confidence may be slightly fractured at the moment.  I'm not ready to count the champs out yet.

Pick:  Czech Republic 4-1

First Power Rankings of the 2013 Season.

I'm back.....for now.  So here we go.

The first Grand Slam event is finished, and my power rankings have been updated. My rankings unlike the ATP official rankings start over at the beginning of the season.  Everyone starts at zero and accumulates points throughout the year.  How do you get points you ask.

This is how players get points in my rankings:

GRAND SLAM EVENTS

3 points are earned for every win at a grand slam tournament up until the final.
5 points is earned by the player who wins in the final.

example: Juan Martin Del Potro won 7 matches to win the U.S. Open.
1st round defeated Juan Monaco = 3 pts
2nd round defeated Jurgen Melzer = 3 pts
3rd round defeated Daniel Koellerer = 3 pts
4th round defeated Juan Carlos Ferrero = 3pts
Quarterfinals defeated Marin Cilic = 3 pts
Semifinals defeated Rafael Nadal = 3pts
Final defeated Roger Federer = 5 pts

For a total of 23 points for winning a major.

Masters Series Events
There are about 8 Masters Series tournaments a year and they normally have a field of 64 players. Which means you must win 6 matches to be the champion.

Rounds 1st to Semifinals = 2pts each
Final = 3 pts to the winner.

For a total of 13 points for winning a Masters Series tournament.

All Other Tournaments
Most other smaller tournaments have 32 player fields, so 5 matches are needed to win.
Rounds 1-4 = 1pt
Final = 2 pts to the winner.
For a total of winning 6 points for winning any smaller tournament.

So with my system the bigger the tournament the more points there are to be earned. Kind of makes sense to me. Also the same system is used for both the men and women.


So here are the first rankings for the 2013 season

Women
1. Na Li (CHN)                                              27pts
2. Victoria Azarenka (BLR)                            26
3. Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)                     24
4. Sloane Stephens (USA)                              20
5. Serena Williams (USA)                               18
6. Elena Vesnina (RUS)                                  17
7. Maria Sharapova (RUS)                             15
8. Kirsten Flipkens (BEL)                               14
8. Angelique Kerber (GER)                            14
8. Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS)                       14

Men
1. David Ferrer (ESP)                                    24 pts
1. Andy Murray (GBR)                                  24
3. Novak Djokovic (SRB)                             23
4. Roger Federer (SUI)                                 15
4. Richard Gasquet (FRA)                             15
4. Janko Tipsarevic (SRB)                             15
7. Tomas Berdych (CZE)                               14
8. Kevin Anderson (RSA)                              13
9. Nicolas Almagro (ESP)                              12
9. Jeremy Chardy (FRA)                                12
9. Kei Nishikori (JPN)                                   12
9. Andrea Seppi (ITA)                                   12
9. Bernard Tomic (AUS)                                12
9. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)                          12

A new updated Power Rankings will come out at the end of each "Grand Slam" event, and Final Power Ranking at the end of the Tour Championships in November.